Oscars 2015 predictions

After my success last year, I thought I'd take another shot at predicting who is going to walk away with those little, but heavy, golden statues on Monday (Australian time).

The main categories this year are littered with biopics or serious films based on true events.  The Oscars have always leaned toward awarding dramas and biopics with little consideration given to comedies and action films, which can still feature great performances and entertain us but for some reason are not considered 'worthy' of the big awards.  Comedies can take out Best Screenplay awards without being nominated for Best Picture, Actress or Actor.   While in the early years of the Oscars we see a few comedy films that have won, the chance of a comedy film winning anything else seems to be dwindling away to nothing.  Many films touted as comedy films that have won awards are really just dramas with some black humour added (looking at you American Beauty, As Good as it Gets et al).  Bridesmaids was the only recent notable exception in nominations for out and out comedies. Action and fantasy films usually scoop the technical awards but hardly get a look in elsewhere - a fun exception being when Lord of the Rings: Return of the King memorably won Best Picture as well as 10 other awards in the presentations for films of 2003.  However, this year could not be further from awarding any light films (Grand Budapest Hotel being a surprising and pleasing exception), so it has been a heavy month of trying to watch all the Oscars contenders for me.

My tip for the winner of each category is highlighted in blue in each list.

Best Film
Nominees: American Sniper, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Boyhood, The Theory of Everything, Selma, Birdman, The Imitation Game, Whiplash

There has been much talk that this year's crop of Best Picture nominees are some of the lowest grossing films of the year - meaning that not many people went to see them.  However, that is usually the case due to the aforementioned bias against comedy, action and fantasy films.  

I think this one is a 3 horse race between Boyhood, Birdman and The Imitation Game.  Grand Budapest Hotel is ruled out because it's a comedy.  Whiplash is just too niche.  The Theory of Everything was nice but lacked bite.  Selma was oh so worthy but ultimately it's a bit dull (afflicted with the same problem I had with Lincoln - wordy speeches that nobody would ever say). American Sniper is too political (even though the movie actually isn't that political) and the 'fake baby controversy' won't help it.  I loved The Imitation Game, it's been the film I've enjoyed the most out of this category.  I don't know why it isn't a more serious contender but it just doesn't seem to have the sentiment.  Maybe just too British. 

My money is on Boyhood.  Birdman has had rave reviews and was daring in its construction, but is Hollywood going to vote for  a movie that makes fun of Hollywood?  No, I don't think so.  Boyhood has a unique structure, strong performances and a great screenplay.  I think it will just get there.

Best Actress:
Nominees: Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

I haven't seen Marion Cotillard (sorry girl, I love you but the film was in cinemas in Brisbane for about 2 days in total so it was too hard) but have seen all the others.  Felicity Jones was nice as Steven Hawking's wife, but the script never gave us a chance to understand why she was so strong and cheerful through such difficulty, which would have probably given her a better chance to win.  Rosamund Pike should probably win for her extraordinary portrayal of a psychopath, but this one is between Reese and Julianne.  Julianne has the form in all previous award shows and the subject matter of an intelligent woman going through early onset Alzheimers is award bait.  I would prefer Reese to win for her totally raw and uncompromising performance as a lost young woman walking her way back to life, but I think Julianne has this one in the bag.  It will be seen as 'her time'.

Best Actor
Nominees:  Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton (Birdman)

These are 5 very good performances in very similar roles.  Virtually all of these characters are men of very few words, most are socially awkward or outcasts and all are struggling against something trying to stop them achieving their goals.   All but Michael Keaton were playing a real person, and some would argue that Michael Keaton was really just playing a version of Michael Keaton.   All were fascinating to watch in their roles as they used facial expression and body language only to express what these men could not say.  However, the award will definitely go to Eddie Redmayne, who takes it to the limit of physical contortion to play Professor Stephen Hawking over a roughly 30 year timeframe as his body wastes from Motor Neurone disease.  He convincingly portrays Hawking as both an intelligent, funny charmer and a bit of a rogue, being especially trying to his wife at times.

Best Supporting Actress
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods), Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Emma Stone (Birdman), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)

This is one year Meryl Streep is not going to win - as good as she is in general (I haven't seen the film) it is not the usual type of role to be nominated for in this category.  Apart from that it is another strong field.  Laura Dern's role is probably just too brief.  I'm not a Keira Knightly fan usually but thought she was a great peppy shot in the arm for the otherwise too blokey Imitation Game.  Emma Stone is raw and sassy as the ex-junkie daughter in Birdman but again I think it was a little brief.  Patricia Arquette is exquisite in Boyhood though, taking you on a roller coaster ride of mothering through a series of bad choices of men while trying to make a living for her family and have a career.  Her final words in Boyhood have stayed with me for a long time afterwards. So poignant.

Best Supporting Actor
JK Simmons (Whiplash), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), Robert Duvall (The Judge), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

I've missed two performances in this category this year, including JK Simmons.  So I'm going with the weight of sentiment in choosing this winner rather than making my own assessment.  Kinda sad for the other guys though - Mark Ruffalo could have had this any other year, and Edward Norton is hilarious in Birdman.

Best Director
Alejandro G Inarritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

Tough one to call.  There are two groundbreaking technical achievements in this pack, two directors who drew excellent performances and built great tension in moody historical dramas, and one who continues to further his wacky vision and obsession with centring shots (search for Wes Anderson - Centred on Vimeo and watch this awesome video).  Since I didn't really like Birdman as a film, I'm going with Richard Linklater for his amazing vision to film a movie over a 12 year period with strong continuity, great screenplay and involvement from his actors.

And the rest of the categories I dare to attempt:

Best Cinematography - hands down this will go to Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman.  How on earth they achieved these continuous long takes we may never know!

Best Animated Film - I've seen none of them but feel it will be How to Train your Dragon 2 based on what I've read and heard about it.

Best Original Screenplay - I'm going with the out-of-the-box choice here of The Grand Budapest Hotel for the snappy dialogue.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Extremely difficult to call as any could win.  I'm going to go with Whiplash.

Best Production Design - The Grand Budapest Hotel has to have this one.

Visual Effects - It will be a crime if X-Men: Days of Future Past doesn't win this for the Quiksilver scene alone. Go Aussie!

Let's see how I go!