Wow, time flies and it is the Oscars ceremony again tomorrow, a week later than last year but still so sudden for me! I have seen all but 2 of the films nominated for Best Picture and that has covered most of the Director/Screenplay/Actor/Actress awards, so I'm hoping I will get more than a few right this year. Although for me, I don't think there is a clear frontrunner due to a strange combination of how much they always follow tradition but then also the mood of Hollywood this year after the Weinstein problem and the powerful #metoo campaign.
So here I go again:
Best Picture
There are so many possible winners in this category. The Shape of Water was the early frontrunner with 13 nominations and a lot of love from critics. But I worry that there has never been a Best Picture winner in recent history that sits so firmly in the 'fantasy' genre apart from Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, and that was a bit of a surprise. Will the Academy give it to a romance between a woman and fish-man? But if not that, what would win? 3 Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri seems to be the next favourite but it may be a bit troublesome with a fairly casual dismissal of racism and probably a too sudden behavioural switch that was key to the film. Get Out was excellent, funny and original but is the criticism of liberal white people going to block it given the make up of the Academy? Or will the perception of it be that voting for it is a strong anti-racism statement? Could go either way. Dunkirk was a fantastic film, technically excellent but many felt it lacked a soul. Lady Bird is a strong contender too, and as the only nominated film directed by a woman (not just this year but in many a year) it could capture the Academy's imagination for some good vibes from the public following all the sex and gender issues of the last year. The others are probably very outside chances despite being quality films.
This is really tough to pick and while I think The Shape of Water deserves to win, I think 3 Billboards might just edge it out, just as Moonlight edged the hot favourite La La Land last year.
Best Director
While I would love Greta Gerwig to take this one out for her lovely film with its raw and honest relationships, I think Guillermo del Toro has this one all wrapped up for The Shape of Water. As always he is completely in control of his material and vision. The colouring of the film, all blues, greens and then reds as his leading lady falls in love is a stunning way of subtly enhancing the feeling that the viewer will have.
Best Actress
Sheesh, I'd hate to be an Academy voter with this field of nominees to choose between. All are truly excellent and giving their all in these films. Probably the first year in many where Meryl Streep is the weakest chance, the film was just a little too mild. Margot Robbie was fantastic as Tonya Harding and she even learned figure skating people! But this is a 3 way fight between Sally Hawkins, Saoirse Ronan and Frances McDormand who are all fierce as hell in these roles. I think Frances McDormand has got this in the bag, very sorry for Sally Hawkins though
Best Supporting Actress
I've seen 60% of these performances so I'm not confident on choosing this one. Allison Janney is a tour de force as the stage mother in I Tonya is probably the frontrunner. Lesley Manville could steal it by all accounts but I am going with Allison Janney.
Best Actor
I've only seen 2 of these performances but on the back of wins to date and hype, I feel confident to say that Gary Oldman will be collecting the statue. He practically disappears into the character and gives Winston Churchill a small vulnerable side to balance out the gruff exterior.
Best Supporting Actor
I haven't seen one of these performances but apparently Christopher Plummer is amazing. But I am assuming the hype for Sam Rockwell is going to put him over the line in this category. It is yet another in a long line of strong but kooky performances, so maybe he will be seen as 'deserving'. The growth of his 3 Billboards character is what is nominated here but does the lazy scripting that achieves it undercut his chances? I personally enjoyed Woody Harrelson more in 3 Billboards and also liked Willem Dafoe in Florida Project a lot. Tough choice again but I'm going with Sam Rockwell.
Cinematography
There are only 2 horses in this race! Will it be Bladerunner 2049 or Dunkirk? I really thought Dunkirk was stunningly filmed but Bladerunner 2049 is just going to get the nose in front I think. There's a dark horse there in The Shape of Water though.....
Visual Effects
Another really tough category after just re-watching War for the Planet of the Apes, I really believed those apes were riding, shooting, talking. Kong: Skull Island was similarly realistic and seamless. But Bladerunner 2049 should definitely have this sewn up. with those futuristic vistas.
Production Design
I think The Shape of Water has to win this one despite being up against Bladerunner and Dunkirk. It is just beautiful and perfect to the time it is set in.
Adapted Screenplay
Some real quality films and screenplays in this group although I have only seen 2 of them. I haven't seen Molly's Game but it's only really nominated because it was written by Aaron Sorkin I believe. I loved The Big Sick and it's a very clever and funny script. Logan is the best written superhero movie ever. Call me By Your Name is by all accounts a beautiful movie with a stunning late monologue but without much dialogue it may be tough to win this category. That leaves The Disaster Artist and by all accounts that is excellent. I am not really qualified to pick this one, I feel it's either Logan or Disaster Artist although the Big Sick deserves it. So..... The Disaster Artist?
Original Screenplay
Lady Bird! Raw, real and happy and sad. Written by a very talented woman so this would really show the world that Hollywood is ready to change. Except it won't. So I think 3 Billboards might win this category. Sweary and talky but Frances McDormand is up to every salty line.
And the others:
Makeup and Hair - Darkest Hour
Costuming - probably Beauty and the Beast or Phantom Thread, I will go with B & B.
Editing - Baby Driver could take it, as could Bladerunner, but my money is on Dunkirk for those stunning aerial combat scenes
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing - Baby Driver
Animated Film - Coco
Original Score - lots of possibilities but I think The Shape of Water although I really liked the 3 Billboards score and soundtrack
Original Song - This is Me from The Greatest Showman is a killer!
OK let's see how I go in less than 24 hours from now!
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