It is the Sunday night before the Oscars and I am both excited and not excited. Excited because I always look forward to the show: the glitz, glamour and the whole production. With Billy Crystal back to host this year it should be funny in a non-offensive way. And who can resist looking at all the pretty dresses and mentally handing out your own best and worst dressed awards? Not excited because this year looks like being one of the most predictable in a while so the suspense is fairly low. And also it's hard not to dream about what it would have been like with Eddie Murphy hosting (if you read my Tower Heist review, you'd know the old fast-talking jive Eddie is back) and Brett Ratner producing. Brett's big mouth put paid to that though so we may never see it.
For Aussies, the Oscars will be shown live tomorrow (Monday 26 Feb) from 11am and probably repeated tomorrow night. That means today was my last day to "bone up" on the films before the ceremony. Although I probably won't watch it until Tuesday which is a day off, thanks to working tomorrow and a Sidewave tomorrow night. So today I studied up.
Of the 9 films nominated for Best Picture, I've now seen 7 after watching The Tree of Life and The Help today on DVD. Sorry but the Tree of Life is going to go down as one of the worst movies I've seen (review coming - stay tuned) but The Help was very good. I haven't seen Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close or Warhorse but neither of those is really in the running. The race is officially between The Artist and The Descendants, bit I actually think that The Artist and Hugo were the best movies. I think The Artist is definitely going to win and it's such a hot favourite you wouldn't even bet on it at $1.05 odds on. It has the X factor that in my opinion The Descendants was lacking, while Hugo is going to suffer for being written off as a kids' movie which it really wasn't. Both Moneyball and Midnight in Paris were enjoyable movies but just not in the same league. Strangely for The Help it is looking likely to sweep the acting trophies but not win the Best Picture even though it could also deserve it. Any other year and such a big "issues" film with a strong cast and wide appeal would have been the favourite. But The Artist is a very poignant film with the added bonus of being about the movies and also something that we haven't seen for a while (silent, black and white).
Money's on: The Artist
Could still go to: The Descendants or The Help
The Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress trophies are odds on to go to Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer respectively, both for The Help. Octavia has won this category in every awards ceremony this season so why would she stop now? The only real competition for the Best Actress award is the first lady of acting, Meryl Streep, for her impersonation of Margaret Thatcher which looked frightengly good in the previews I saw. I think though that The Help actresses will have popularity on their side, and their performances were very touching and not too showy. It's a real shame I think that Kirsten Dunst did not score a nomination for Melancholia as I think her acting was incredible in that movie and she could've been a strong contender. Rooney Mara's nom for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is a bit of a head scratcher as she's too new and it's a bit too alternative. Jessica Chastain is unfortunate to be up against her own castmate who had the more sypathetic role, as she was also very good in The Help and a lot of people thought she should've been nominated for The Tree of Life. That girl came from nowhere and was everywhere last year!
Money's on: Viola Davis (Best Actress) and Octavia Spencer (Best Supporting Actress)
Could still win: Meryl Streep (Best Actress)
The Best Actor race is also down to a two-horse race between Mr Clooney and Jean Dujardin from The Artist. Having won most or all of the lead up awards where the categories weren't split (at the Golden Globes George won for Best Drama and Jean for Best Comedy/Musical), Jean is a hot favourite to win. The betting is more open for this category so it really could go either way. But it's pretty certain that Brad Pitt (Moneyball), Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor etc) and Demian Bechir (A Better Life) aren't really in it. I praised Pitt's performance but it is too understated. My personal view is that Clooney has given one of his best in The Descendants but Jean Dujardin is irrestistible as silent movie star George Valentin. He portrays the rise and fall of George perfectly, especially given he doesn't get to utter a word until one minute before the end.
Money's on: Jean Dujardin
Could still win: George Clooney
Best Director is a more open race in my opinion. Although Michael Hazavinicius is odds on to win for The Artist, he is relatively unknown. I feel that the maestro Martin Scorcese did a terrific job on Hugo, filiming in 3D for the first time in a period adventure film. If Hazavinicius can win for doing something different than expected, then Scorcese should stand an equal chance in my book. Woody Allen created some magic in Paris but that had more to do with the location, screenplay and appealing stars than the direction itself. If Terence Malick won for The Tree of Life I think I'd have to eat my hat. It was so esoteric it's just not funny. Alexander Payne did a great job on The Descendants though, with fans of the book being very pleased with the screen translation. He's also an Oscar fave after winning for Sideways a few years back.
Money's on: Michael Hazavinicius
Could still win: Martin Scorcese or Alexander Payne
In the Screenplay category I'm going to go with the favourite and say that The Artist is pretty likely to win Best Screenplay written directly for the Screen. And it will deserve to win that category. Which is a shame for Bridesmaids which would also deserve to win but won't because it's a straight out comedy and the Academy would never have that. Best Adapted Screenplay is the category that's probably the most wide open. This could deservingly go to either The Descendants, Hugo or Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy. I would really like Hugo to win this one but I'm predicting The Descendants.
Some other predictions are:
Man or a Muppet is definitely going to win Best Song (from a very small field of 2 noms!), Tintin should win Best Score, Best Visual Effects should be Rise of the Planet of the Apes, and The Artist should take out Best Costume Design.
Now the predictions are out there so let's see how I go. The hardest part is going to be avoiding finding out any winners until I watch the ceremony, so I'll be going on a news and social media blackout from lunch time tomorrow. Please don't tell me anything about it until at least Tuesday night!! I do love a good surprise.
No comments:
Post a Comment